Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 85329.551810 90046.524823 94761.791746 99825.727569 105106.847743 110448.706175 116257.045380
2025-05-18 77456.267593 84666.536620 92075.595933 100247.694882 108998.131986 118076.378030 128196.229008
2025-05-25 71636.065422 80527.338516 89864.929978 100381.240214 111873.798427 124030.208017 137839.225614
2025-06-01 67837.362838 78057.477597 88986.292690 101507.565609 115420.527744 130369.417953 147609.065581
2025-06-08 63827.182290 74993.444532 87127.867468 101242.909194 117157.325572 134491.731879 154745.771031
2025-06-15 61535.327947 73640.424840 86981.891116 102707.095520 120661.913686 140449.411070 163829.520917
2025-06-22 59149.951144 72007.518529 86365.111961 103495.369340 123282.128175 145323.169855 171631.633724
2025-06-29 56647.394030 70090.832652 85289.899230 103633.224341 125051.979277 149149.967723 178185.579728
2025-07-06 54350.532093 68293.159986 84242.399880 103699.695657 126650.630877 152713.224916 184391.147789
2025-07-13 53247.398019 67840.079325 84709.135273 105487.344007 130217.867356 158532.643350 193213.361546
2025-07-20 52089.180796 67253.804387 84961.377242 106973.433450 133397.451106 163886.988764 201502.959167
2025-07-27 50669.539545 66282.470010 84694.320187 107787.719235 135741.165784 168238.889063 208613.759696
2025-08-03 48849.517236 64776.383428 83751.513396 107772.336341 137097.759625 171453.950672 214443.383756
2025-08-10 47269.664306 63512.910255 83057.229508 108019.591651 138744.962366 175006.849131 220690.021747
2025-08-17 45715.640672 62223.406353 82278.888920 108116.823643 140173.339961 178275.895611 226592.933398
2025-08-24 44785.309225 61686.092379 82402.042474 109302.971739 142920.525563 183137.042881 234437.575683
2025-08-31 43219.677778 60278.930093 81384.763888 109019.750772 143815.766044 185721.731563 239506.022909
2025-09-07 42587.849292 60054.126245 81840.661170 110573.848579 146990.588473 191103.960868 248022.424327
2025-09-14 41671.276751 59422.654887 81749.133535 111410.577009 149253.199767 195362.419182 255173.456679
2025-09-21 40499.850629 58416.010683 81140.960240 111556.893251 150622.734768 198503.914274 260947.057558
2025-09-28 39354.267879 57407.308718 80497.142786 111627.449974 151873.340377 201485.230043 266523.304683
2025-10-05 39032.003528 57490.619655 81267.887507 113524.923414 155460.271888 207407.525230 275808.006648
2025-10-12 38595.580023 57401.140389 81798.329173 115102.037963 158638.269591 212829.974844 284497.659212